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Updates from Adam Isacson (January 14, 2025)

Hi, this is Adam. If you're receiving this message, it means you signed up on my website to receive regular updates. If you'd like to stop getting these, just follow the instructions further down.

Well, I'd meant to start up these emails over the past weekend, but…

  • I went to El Paso Thursday 9 for a board meeting of an area migrant shelter.
  • I flew to New York Saturday 11 to join family for a memorial event for my father in law, who passed peacefully on New Year's Day at age 86 after long illness. Farewell and thank you for everything, Pete.
  • Over the weekend I got word that I'll be testifying in the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Thursday. One of the chamber's first hearings of the year (other than Trump's cabinet nominees) will be on the new administration's proposal to revive the "Remain in Mexico" program. So there has been a lot of testimony to prepare. Wish me luck; I'll post video in my next message.
  • On Friday we're headed up to Massachusetts to bring our daughter to the second semester of junior year of college. We will not hurry back to Washington because there's no point in being here during Monday's coronation.
  • Oh also I'm in the midst of giving three other talks to groups this week.

So yes, a lot is happening. Some of it is just "being a grownup in your 50s." I share it to explain that there will be some slippage on the "weekly" emails for a little while. Because my testimony is taking place during the time of the week that I usually draft the Weekly Border Updates, for instance, this week's edition will be a day or two late, as will the next edition of these emails. Thanks for bearing with me!

The message below has last Friday's Border Update, a new podcast episode, and the usual features like events and links.

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: New Congress moving fast, executive orders and mass deportation, reduced migration

(Posted Friday, January 10)

  • Read the whole thing here. See past weekly updates here.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

  • Republican-led Congress Accelerating Border and Migration Agenda

Even before Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration, the new Republican majority in the U.S. Congress is moving to implement hard-line border and migration measures. The “Laken Riley Act,” which mandates detentions for minor crimes and gives superpowers to state attorneys-general, is nearing passage. Next week, the Senate Homeland Security Committee will hold hearings on the Homeland Security secretary nominee and the Remain in Mexico program. A big “reconciliation” package of spending for border hardening and deportations awaits, though it may be later than initially expected.

  • Bracing for Executive Orders and “Mass Deportation”

Donald Trump expects to issue a large number of executive orders regarding the border and migration on January 20, possibly including a revival of Title 42. Officials have been discussing, without very much detail, plans for a mass deportation campaign that could cost dozens of billions of dollars per year. Governments in Mexico and Central America are concerned about the economic impact and about the likelihood that the Trump administration may push them to accept deportations of other countries’ citizens. The President of Honduras threatened to close a 42-year-old U.S. military base.

  • Migration Appears to be Declining Ahead of Inauguration

Border Patrol’s migrant apprehensions at the border have fallen to levels not seen since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the Darién Gap, too, migration has plummeted. Anticipation of the new Trump administration may be a reason. Large numbers of people continue to be stranded in Mexico, often hoping to get appointments using the CBP One app—a migration pathway that the new Trump administration appears determined to abolish.

Read the whole thing here.

Support ad-free, paywall-free Weekly Border Updates. Your donation to WOLA is crucial to sustain this effort. Please contribute now and support our work.

WOLA Podcast: From Promise to Pressure: Bernardo Arévalo’s First Year in Power in Guatemala

(Posted Tuesday, January 14)

The first WOLA podcast of 2025 is with my colleague Ana María Méndez, who runs our Central America program. The president of Guatemala, Bernardo Arévalo, finished his first year in office on January 14. He's the most unlikely of 2020s Latin American presidents: a mild-mannered democratic institutionalist. So of course he's having a rough time of it. Listen here, Ana María is a native of Guatemala and a great explainer. Here's the text of the landing page on WOLA's site.

In this podcast episode WOLA’s Central America Director, Ana María Méndez Dardón, reflects on Bernardo Arévalo’s first year in office, as January 14, 2025 marks one year since the inauguration that followed his unexpected election.

As we discussed with Ana María in a podcast episode shortly after his inauguration, Bernardo Arévalo and his Semilla party had a very difficult time reaching inauguration day, notably due to active obstruction from Guatemala’s traditional, ruling elites, including the Attorney General’s Office. While citizen mobilization, largely indigenous groups’ mobilization, made it possible for Arevalo to democratically take office, the difficulties he and his party faced back then have remained, making it difficult to govern and, in turn, negatively affecting his popularity due to unmet expectations.

Three prominent obstacles that the Arevalo administration will continue to face from his first year to his second, Ana María highlights, are the office of the Attorney General and the powerful presence of other known corrupt actors within the government; the instability of his cabinet paired with a small presence of his party in Congress; and the powerful private sector’s ties to corrupt elite groups.

The Attorney General’s office has played an active role in blocking access to justice and promoting the persecution and criminalization of those who have been key to anti-corruption and human rights efforts, while maintaining the threat of forcibly removing Arévalo from office. Although Attorney General Consuelo Porras was sanctioned by the United States, along with 42 other countries, for significant corruption, Arévalo has determined that removing her would violate constitutional norms. (Her term ends in May 2026.) Ana María also notes alliances that Porras has cultivated with members of the U.S. Republican Party.

Despite the obstacles, Ana María notes possibilities for growth, including the launch of an alternative business association, a new national anti-extortion effort, and negotiation efforts with Congress.

Ana María also touches on the U.S.-Guatemala bilateral relationship during the Biden administration and expectations for the Trump-Arevalo relationship. During the Biden administration, it was evident that security and economic issues were top priorities, with notable bilateral engagement including multi-sectoral and multi-departmental efforts led by the Office of the Vice President to address the root causes of migration. It is uncertain whether the Trump administration will continue these efforts, and while some Republicans regard Arévalo as a strong democratic ally, the migration issue, particularly the incoming Trump administration’s plans to deter and deport migrants, may be the topline item in the bilateral relationship.

To follow Guatemalan developments, Ana María recommends independent media including Plaza Pública, Con Criterio, and Prensa Comunitaria.

Download this podcast episode’s .mp3 file here. Listen to WOLA’s Latin America Today podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, or wherever you subscribe to podcasts. The main feed is here.

(Posted Saturday, January 11)

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Tuesday, January 14

Wednesday, January 15

Thursday, January 16

  • 9:00 in Room 342 Dirksen Senate Office Building and online: Hearing of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on Remain in Mexico. <--Hey, this is with me.
  • 10:30-12:00 at wilsoncenter.org: USMCA 2026 Review: New Realities and Strategic Shifts in North American Trade (RSVP required).
  • 2:00-5:00 at ips-dc.org: Critical Raw Materials: The Impact of U.S.-China Competition (RSVP required).
In Mexico, those displaced by armed conflict find themselves caught between criminal groups, paramilitaries, and a frequently indifferent government
President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace policy is struggling to make any headway as he passes the halfway point of his four-year administration. The negotiations have had profound effects on the criminal dynamics in the country
As Maduro consolidates power in Venezuela, who has the United States sanctioned—and are those sanctions working?
  • Diana Senior-Angulo, Gustavo Flores-Macias, Michael Albertus, Oliver Kaplan, How Covid Changed Latin America (Journal of Democracy, Tuesday, January 7, 2025).
The pandemic also prompted renewed economic-crisis management, social mobilization, and local checks to central power
Culiacán is engulfed in an unprecedented spiral of violence due to an internal conflict within the Sinaloa Cartel, exacerbated by political disputes and a pervasive culture of fear and impunity

And Finally

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