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Updates from Adam Isacson (March 4, 2025)

Hi, this is Adam. If you're receiving this message, it means you signed up on my website to receive regular updates. If you'd like to stop getting these, just follow the instructions further down.

Greetings from Moscow on the Potomac. Happy Tariff and Trade War Tuesday.

There's no other way to put it: things are really grim. Early 1942 grim. "Gandalf taken down and fellowship of the ring scattered by an orc raid" grim. "2019 Washington Nationals at 19-31 in late May" grim.

Those stories turned out well, though. But not because the leaders chose a "roll over and play dead" or a "What leverage do we have? …It's their government" strategy. Sorry, not going there.

Anyway. This week’s email has the Border Update and links to the past two, since I haven't been very regular with these emails (sorry for the inconsistency, but can't promise full regularity at this very busy time). Also, a link to a subject index to this year's Updates so far, a brand-new analysis of the military's role in migration control, a podcast with colleagues at the border in Nogales, links to upcoming events, and two sets of recommended readings.

Stay well and thank you for reading.

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: Southbound migration, Guantánamo, “mass deportations”, tariffs, drug seizures

(Posted Friday, February 28, 2025)

  • Read the whole thing here. See past weekly updates here.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

  • Reports of southbound migration as people abandon hope of seeking protection in the United States: As Trump administration measures shut off the possibility of seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, some people who had migrated to Mexico to do that are turning around. Several dozen per day have been boarding boats through dangerous currents to avoid traveling southbound through the Darién Gap.
  • Another Guantánamo flight arrives, as released detainees reveal horrific conditions: The Trump administration sent 17 more undocumented migrants to the Guantánamo Bay Naval Station, just 3 days after removing to Venezuela all who had been at the base for up to 16 days. Those released from the facility told of horrific and abusive conditions.
  • “Mass deportation” updates: The House passed a budget resolution that, like a Senate measure passed a week earlier, could provide a gigantic amount of funding for the administration’s mass deportation plans. These plans appear to include widespread use of military bases and invocation of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798.
  • “Bridge deportations” continue: The Trump administration sent to Costa Rica a second plane with migrants aboard from Asia, eastern Europe, and Africa. In Panama, 112 of 299 migrants whom the administration flew there are in a jungle camp, cut off from access to attorneys, as they voice fear of return to their countries of origin.
  • The impact on Mexico: President Trump appears determined to levy tariffs on Mexican goods on March 4, citing continued flows of fentanyl. U.S. deportation flights to Mexico are now taking people as far south as possible, near the Guatemala border.
  • Update on CBP’s border drug seizures: Despite Donald Trump’s tariff threats, CBP is finding less fentanyl at the border. Seizures dropped 21 percent from 2023 to 2024, and another 22 percent in the first four months of fiscal 2025, compared to the same period a year earlier. All drugs except marijuana—which continues a sharp decline in seizures—continue to be overwhelmingly encountered at ports of entry.

Read the whole thing here.

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An Index to This Year’s Border Updates

(Posted Saturday, February 22, 2025)

Like me, you’re probably having a hard time keeping up with all of the (usually abusive) border and immigration policies that the Trump administration has been throwing at us. As they “flood the zone,” it’s like we need a big bulletin board to pin up every alarming development, so that we can at least keep it on our radar and not let it go forgotten.

Here’s my bulletin board. I’ve indexed every topic mentioned in 2025’s weekly WOLA Border Updates. There are 70 so far.

Each topic has links to the exact sections of the Border Updates where I covered it.

I’ll keep this up to date all year. I hope you find it as useful as I have so far. (Even though I wrote this stuff, I don’t always remember where it is.)

The Previous Two Border Updates, Since I Neglected to Send "Weekly" Emails Linking to Them

Friday, February 21: January drop, Darién Gap, Panama and Costa Rica, Guantanamo, Budget

Read the whole thing here.

Friday, February 14: low migration, Guantánamo buildup, Congress spending bill, Venezuela deportation

Read the whole thing here.

At WOLA: Soldiers Aren’t Border Police: the Perils of Using Troops Against Migrants

(Posted Monday, March 3, 2025)

Here’s a new analysis at WOLA’s website about one of the many ways in which the Trump administration is playing with fire: sending combat-trained soldiers to act as glorified migration agents, potentially confronting civilians while carrying out a politicized mission. We see it happening at the U.S.-Mexico border, in the U.S. interior and even Guantánamo as so-called “mass deportation” ramps up, and also in Mexico and Guatemala in response to U.S. pressure.

The U.S. military—which prides itself on being apolitical—is being forced to lend itself to the current administration’s domestic political priorities. This threatens a historic break with more than a century of restraint in the United States’ democratic civil-military relations.

Read the whole thing here.

WOLA Podcast: “They Didn’t Take Our Strength”: The Border Under Trump, Viewed from Nogales

(Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2025)

I appreciated this opportunity to spend an hour with three colleagues at the border, with the Kino Border Initiative in Nogales, five weeks into the Trump administration. Karen, Bernie, and Diana provide a moving account of what they’re seeing, and what migrants are facing, at this very difficult moment. Here’s the language of the podcast episode landing page at WOLA’s website.

KBI’s facility in Nogales, Sonora.

In the five weeks since Donald Trump’s inauguration, the landscape for migrants and asylum seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border has shifted dramatically. The new administration is pursuing an aggressive crackdown on asylum seekers, closing legal pathways and ramping up deportations. Migrants who had secured appointments through the CBP One app under the Biden administration found those suddenly canceled. Many are now stranded in Mexico, left in legal limbo and vulnerable to exploitation and danger. The administration is meanwhile increasing its deportations into Mexico of thousands of migrants from Mexico and elsewhere.

This episode takes a deep dive into the current situation in Nogales, Sonora, where asylum seekers and deported individuals are facing increasing hardship and uncertainty. We speak with three frontline experts from the Kino Border Initiative (KBI), an organization providing humanitarian aid, advocacy, and psychosocial support to migrants in crisis.

Our guests—Karen Hernández, KBI’s advocacy coordinator; Bernie Eguia, coordinator of psychosocial support; and Diana Fajardo, a psychologist working with recently deported individuals—share firsthand accounts of the humanitarian crisis. They describe:

  • The immediate impact of Trump’s policies, including the January 20 mass cancellation of CBP One asylum appointments and a coming surge in deportations.
  • How migrants from Haiti, Venezuela, Mexico, and elsewhere are left with dwindling options inside Mexico, facing threats from organized crime, unsafe conditions, and legal roadblocks to seeking refuge.
  • The role of the Mexican government, which is now receiving deportees under an opaque and militarized process, keeping humanitarian groups at arm’s length.
  • The psychological toll of displacement, uncertainty, and family separation—and how organizations like KBI are working to provide support amid shrinking resources.

Despite the bleak reality, our guests emphasize the resilience of the people they serve. Even in desperate moments, migrants are holding onto hope and searching for ways to protect themselves and their families. But without systemic change, there is only so much that can be done to relieve suffering.

While recalling the urgent need for humane policies that prioritize protection over deterrence, this conversation underscores the crucial role of organizations like KBI in providing aid and advocating for migrants’ rights.

Download this podcast episode’s .mp3 file here. Listen to WOLA’s Latin America Today podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, or wherever you subscribe to podcasts. The main feed is here.

Five Latin America Security Longreads from the Past Month

(Posted Monday, March 3, 2024)

I know, who has time for a "long read" during the onslaught of these past several weeks. But these are worth your time.

Fletcher Reveley, Grave Mistakes: The History and Future of Chile’s ‘Disappeared’ (Undark, Wednesday, February 19, 2025).

~10,300 words: In Chile, the Pinochet dictatorship hid the remains of hundreds of its victims. “Can new forensic science help find them—and regain public trust?”

Steven Dudley, How Organized Crime Set the Agenda for Ecuador’s Presidential Elections (InsightCrime, Wednesday, February 5, 2025).

~3,100 words: Both candidates in Ecuador’s April 13 presidential elections seem determined to satisfy the public’s lust for a “mano dura” approach to crime—whether it will work or not.

La Situacion Actual de Orden Publico en Colombia: Radiografia de un Pais en Guerra (El Espectador (Colombia), Friday, February 21, 2025).

~3,800 words: Violence between armed and criminal groups is worsening in many parts of Colombia right now. This overview documents what is happening in several regions of the country.

Elliott Woods, A Deadly Passage (Texas Monthly, Monday, March 3, 2025).

~8,200 words: Travels to the forgotten parts of Mexico and Guatemala to speak to the relatives of migrants who perished on June 27, 2022, when 53 people from Mexico and Central America died of heat inside the container of a tractor-trailer near San Antonio, Texas.

Christopher Newton, Juliana Manjarres, Marina Cavalari, Insight Crime’s 2024 Homicide Round-Up (InsightCrime, Wednesday, February 26, 2025).

~5,600 words: A country-by-country survey of trends for the most closely documented form of violent crime in the part of the world that accounts for a third of the world’s homicides.

(Posted Sunday, March 2)

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Monday, March 3

  • 9:00-6:00 at Inter-American Human Rights Commission Zoom: 192 Period of Sessions (RSVP required).

Tuesday, March 4

Wednesday, March 5

  • 9:00-5:30 at Inter-American Human Rights Commission Zoom: 192 Period of Sessions (RSVP required).
  • 10:00 in Room SD-419 Dirksen Senate Office Building and online: Hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Advancing American Interests in the Western Hemisphere.
  • 10:00-11:30 at thedialogue.org: The Lancet Series: Early Childhood Development and the Next 1,000 Days (RSVP required).
  • 1:00 at Zoom: Migration Policy Under the Trump Administration: What’s Changing and What’s at Stake? (RSVP required).
  • 6:00 hosted by Human Rights First: The Legacy of Executive Orders: Impact on Black Communities and Immigrant Rights (RSVP required).

Thursday, March 6

  • 9:00-3:30 at Inter-American Human Rights Commission Zoom: 192 Period of Sessions (RSVP required).
  • 2:00 at Zoom: Reconciliation Rundown: Understanding the Basics of Budget Reconciliation (RSVP required).

Friday, March 7

  • 9:00-12:30 at Inter-American Human Rights Commission Zoom: 192 Period of Sessions (RSVP required).

(See also the "Long Reads" post above, I'm trying not to duplicate here.)

"Biking on the wrong side of the road. Crossing the Rio Grande on foot. Shoplifting at Target. These are the arrest records for some of the 178 Venezuelan migrants who were detained this month in Guantanamo Bay."
The border is super-quiet even as new troops arrive. "The reality here is tough to square with the Trump administration’s Jan. 20 declaration of a “national emergency” at the border."
A super-smart analysis of the regional information landscape from the Colombian press freedom advocate.
The Post spent parts of four months following the Brazilian state attorney who has gone after the country’s increasingly powerful narcos — and could pay with his life
What motivated this U.S. ambassador to betray his own country during his decades in the Foreign Service?

And Finally

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