Sep 25, 2023

Updates from Adam Isacson (September 25, 2023)

Hi, this is Adam. If you're receiving this message, it means you signed up on my website, probably quite a while ago, to receive regular updates.

I stopped doing these messages a while ago, then the mailing list service I was using got bought by—and killed by—Twitter (RIP Revue). Now, I'm reviving them and hope to share them on a reasonably regular basis. If you'd like to stop getting these, just follow the instructions further down.

This one has a border update, some charts reflecting new data about migration, a couple of brief analyses about Colombia, some news links, and a list of upcoming events.

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: September 22, 2023

Read the whole update at WOLA's website.

Migrant Apprehensions Rise, Shelters Fill

Arrivals of migrants, mostly asylum seekers, at the U.S.-Mexico border rose to about 8,000 per day this week, a level last seen in April 2023 before the termination of the Title 42 policy. As shelters fill and Border Patrol begins releasing processed migrants on border cities’ streets, it is apparent that migrants’ post-Title 42 “wait and see” period is over. Asylum seekers are again opting to turn themselves in to Border Patrol despite the Biden administration’s “carrot and stick” approach of legal pathways and harsh limits on asylum access. Shelters and migrant routes are similarly full throughout Mexico.

Panama Shares Darién Gap Migration Data After a Record Month

Nearly 82,000 people migrated in August through the treacherous Darién Gap jungle region straddling Colombia and Panama. During the first eight months of 2023, over 330,000 people have taken this once-impenetrable route. So far this year, 60 percent have been citizens of Venezuela and 21 percent have been children, despite the dangers of the journey. In this region of dense forest and difficult terrain, governments have limited short-term options to control territory or channel the flow of people.

House Republicans Demand Border Crackdown to Avoid Government Shutdown

As the U.S. government heads for a September 30 budget deadline and an increasingly likely shutdown, the U.S. House of Representatives’ narrow, fractious Republican majority may be proposing a bill that would keep the government open through October 31 in exchange for some radical changes to border and migration policy that the Democratic-majority Senate and the Biden White House would be certain to oppose.

Continue here—this week's update is a long one because a lot is going on.

Migration at the U.S.-Mexico Border Through August

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released new data late Friday night, offering us a more detailed look at what migration looked like at the U.S.-Mexico border through the end of August.

It was the second straight month of increased arrivals at the border, with several nationalities more than doubling since June. Migration levels throughout the Americas have been very high since pandemic border closures eased in late 2020 and early 2021. There was a lull after May 11, 2023, when the Title 42 pandemic expulsions policy ended and migrants went into a sort of "wait and see" mode. That lull has now ended.

All CBP Migrant Encounters at the U.S.-Mexico Border Includes those encountered at, and between, ports of entry.  June 2023 Mexico 49,268 Venezuela 20,456 Honduras 15,094 Other 13,630 Guatemala 10,362 Haiti 7,360 Ecuador 5,105 Colombia 4,706 El Salvador 3,184 Brazil 2,962 Cuba 2,681 Peru 2,623 India 2,522 China 2,147 Russia 1,428 Turkey 501 Nicaragua 417 July 2023 Mexico 53,931 Honduras 26,025 Guatemala 22,128 Venezuela 18,964 Other 13,995 Haiti 10,684 Ecuador 9,911 Colombia 5,951 El Salvador 3,953 Cuba 3,669 Brazil 3,113 China 3,105 India 2,703 Peru 2,473 Russia 1,840 Turkey 473 Nicaragua 445 August 2023 Mexico 55,502 Guatemala 37,937 Honduras 35,173 Venezuela 31,463 Other 14,454 Ecuador 13,630 Colombia 8,944 Haiti 8,687 Cuba 6,181 El Salvador 6,080 Brazil 3,463 Peru 3,146 India 2,574 China 2,379 Russia 2,097 Nicaragua 737 Turkey 407

The largest increases were in arrivals of migrants arriving as family units (parents with children.

Chart: Family Unit Member / Accompanied Minor CBP (Border Patrol Plus Port of Entry) Migrant Encounters by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border August 2023: Guatemala 23%, Honduras 22%, Mexico 18%, Venezuela 13%, Ecuador 6%, Colombia 4%, All Others <4% Since October 2020: Honduras 18%, Mexico 12%, Guatemala 10.5%, Venezuela 9.7%, Colombia 8%, Ecuador 6.1%, All Others <6%

I'm still updating our collection of infographics that explain trends at the border (website / PDF). But I shared selections in three separate posts over the weekend.

Darién Gap Migration Through August 2023

We also got August data, detailed in the Weekly Border Update, about migration through the treacherous Darién Gap jungle region that straddles Colombia and Panama.

It broke all records: 81,946 people passed through this treacherous jungle region in 31 days. The previous monthly record, set in October 2022, was 59,773.

Monthly Migration Through Panama’s Darién Gap August 2023: Venezuela 77%, Ecuador 11%, Colombia 4%, China 3%, Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 2%, all others <1% January 22-Aug 23: Venezuela 60%, Ecuador 13%, Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 12%, Colombia 2.8%, China 2.6%, all others <2% Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Venezuela 1421 1573 1704 2694 9844 11359 17066 23632 38399 40593 668 1374 2337 7097 20816 25395 26409 18501 38033 62700 Ecuador 100 156 121 181 527 555 883 1581 2594 8487 6350 7821 6352 5203 2772 2683 3059 5052 9773 8642 Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 807 627 658 785 997 1025 1245 1921 2642 4525 5520 6535 12063 7813 8335 5832 3633 1743 1548 1992 Colombia 48 72 59 72 248 287 407 569 1306 1600 208 188 333 637 1260 1634 1645 894 1884 2989 China 32 39 56 59 67 66 85 119 136 274 377 695 913 1285 1657 1683 1497 1722 1789 2433 India 67 74 88 172 179 228 431 332 350 604 813 756 562 872 1109 446 161 65 96 27 Cuba 367 334 361 634 567 416 574 589 490 663 535 431 142 36 35 59 59 74 123 172 Afghanistan 1 3 40 31 67 82 162 128 180 551 379 596 291 276 359 386 192 217 321 467 Peru 17 23 18 29 88 109 136 247 365 438 34 39 39 100 261 277 394 209 376 653 Other Countries 1842 1361 1722 1477 1310 1506 1833 1986 1742 2038 1748 1862 1602 1338 1495 1902 1913 1245 1444 1871

In the first eight months of this year, 333,704 people have migrated through the Darién. Until very recently, migration through this region just wasn't something that happened. Ten years ago, in 2013, the full-year total was 3,051 migrants. In 2011, it was just 281.

Annual Migration Through Panama’s Darién Gap 2023: Venezuela 60%, Ecuador 13.0%, Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 12.9%, China 4%, Colombia 3%, India 1.0%, All Others <1% Since 2010: Venezuela 43%, Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 25%, Ecuador 9%, Cuba 8%, Colombia 2.0%, All Others <2% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Aug) Venezuela 2 6 18 65 78 69 2819 150327 201288 Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 0 1 0 2 2 8 16742 40 420 10490 5331 101072 27287 42959 Ecuador 15 18 4 1 14 93 50 51 31 40 387 29356 43536 Cuba 79 18 1154 2010 5026 24623 7383 736 329 2691 245 18600 5961 700 Colombia 65 24 26 9 32 16 36 13 23 21 169 5064 11276 China 268 9 11 1 1 6 3 77 2005 12979 India 12 11 48 1 1 20 1127 2962 1920 39 592 4094 3338 Nepal 29 9 213 297 468 2426 1619 2138 868 254 56 523 1631 1659 Bangladesh 53 45 89 398 377 559 580 506 1525 911 123 1657 1884 1158 Other Countries 118 110 220 313 291 1623 3601 2119 2988 5704 538 7830 20675 14811

60 percent of this year’s migrants through the Darién Gap have been citizens of Venezuela: 201,288 people. In August, the migrant population was 77 percent Venezuelan: 62,700 people.

Marta Ruiz on Colombia’s “Reverse Land Reform”

If a drug-funded armed group on the U.S. government’s terrorist list forced thousands of family farmers off their land, can companies who bought that land just a few years later really claim to have done so “in good faith?”

Marta Ruiz, a journalist who served as a commissioner of Colombia’s Truth Commission, asked that question in a highly recommended September 10 column at the Colombian news site La Silla Vacía, about the Montes de María, a region near the country’s Caribbean coast where small farmers struggled to win titles to their lands, only to be massively displaced by an early 2000s scorched-earth campaign, including a string of notoriously bloody massacres, by the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC).

I posted translated excerpts from her analysis, along with bits of context from my own past work in the Montes de María region.

Delaying Tactics Threaten Justice in March 2022 Colombian Military Massacre Case

Here's an update on the case of a March 2022 massacre committed by Colombian soldiers in the southern department of Putumayo. Civilian prosecutors say they've put together a strong case, but justice is moving slowly, as defense lawyers keep trying to move the trial to Colombia's much more lenient military justice system.

Links from the Past Week

Writing the Border Update and processing late-week migration data dumps from Panama and CBP have me a few days behind on news, but here are a few readings from last week that I found especially insightful.

Caitlyn Yates, Juan Pappier, How the Treacherous Darien Gap Became a Migration Crossroads of the Americas (Migration Policy Institute, Wednesday, September 20, 2023).

Migration in and through the Darien Gap is unlikely to end, at least in the near future

Cat Cardenas, Operation Lone Star Transformed This Texas Border Town, but the Battle Didn't Start There (The Los Angeles Times, Wednesday, September 20, 2023).

Since 2021, the perception that Eagle Pass is a town on the front lines of an illegal immigration crisis has been used to justify a policy that’s made parts of the city unrecognizable

Megan Janetsky, Colombia's President Has a Plan for 'Total Peace.' but Militias Aren't Putting Down Their Guns Yet (Associated Press, Associated Press, Tuesday, September 19, 2023).

Programs for the young people that gangs recruit are planned in Buenaventura and other cities. But the country’s most powerful armed groups have grown stronger, according to experts, and bloodshed between rival groups has skyrocketed

Mary Beth Sheridan, How to Match Bukele's Success Against Gangs? First, Dismantle Democracy. (The Washington Post, Tuesday, September 19, 2023).

The Salvadoran president’s crackdown on criminal violence has made him Latin America’s most popular leader. Under a state of emergency declaration, the government is now holding 71,000 people — many, activists say, on specious grounds

Roman Gressier, “Release Everything! The Jesuits Were Killed in 1989, for Christ's Sake” (El Faro (El Salvador), Tuesday, September 19, 2023).

Democratic Congressman Jim McGovern of Massachusetts joined more than three decades ago the efforts to elucidate another infamous crime: who in the Salvadoran military orchestrated the murder of six Jesuit priests

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Monday, September 25

3:00-4:00 at wilsoncenter.org, thedialogue.org, or atlanticcouncil.org: A Conversation with President of Ecuador Guillermo Lasso (RSVP required).

Tuesday, September 26

10:30 at atlanticcouncil.org: Pulling off an energy transition: A road map for the Caribbean (RSVP required).
2:00-4:00 on Microsoft Teams: USMCA: Past, Present, Future (RSVP required).
4:00 at CODHES YouTube: Migración en la Agenda de las elecciones 2023 en Colombia.

Wednesday, September 27

9:00-10:30 at CSIS: The Future of Latin America’s Entrepreneurial Ecosystem (RSVP required).
10:00-11:30 at the Wilson Center: Challenging Autocracy From the Front Lines (RSVP required).
1:00 at startwithdignity.org: Start With Dignity Campaign Virtual Press Conference (RSVP required for Zoom, but not to view on Facebook).
3:00 at Jesuit Refugee Service Zoom: Accompaniment at the U.S.-Mexico Border (RSVP required).

Thursday, September 28

2:00 in House Visitors’ Center Room HVC-210 and online: Hearing of the House Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere about Communism on Our Doorstep: The Threat of China’s Malign Influence in Latin America.
4:00-5:30 at AEI and online: Streamlining the Immigration Bureaucracy: A Conversation with Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) (RSVP required).

Friday, September 29

11:00-12:00 at the Wilson Center and online: Catastrophes, Confrontations, and Constraints (Book Launch) (RSVP required).

Sheridan Circle Saturday

Here's a poor quality mobile phone photo of Chile President Gabriel Boric on September 23 in Washington’s Sheridan Circle, at a memorial of the 1976 state terrorist attack there that killed Orlando Letelier, the foreign minister in Salvador Allende's government, and Ronni Karpen Moffitt of the Institute for Policy Studies.