Weekly adamisacson.com - Issue #37

I haven't done one of these for quite a while, and I apologize for that. But I look forward to running another streak of "weekly" updates until I fall off of this horse again. It's nice to be back, and there's a lot to share.

Podcast on the turmoil in Peru

Peru's Congress ejected the country's President on Monday, and massive protests forced his replacement to resign on Sunday. In between, I recorded a WOLA podcast with Senior Fellow and longtime Peru expert Jo-Marie Burt. Events are moving fast in Lima, but Jo-Marie provides great context. Give it a listen.

Peru Abruptly Removes Its President - WOLA

A supermajority of Peru’s Congress voted on November 9 to force out President Martín Vizcarra on grounds of “moral incapacity.” In a country where nearly all presidents since the 1980s have run into serious legal trouble for corruption, Vizcarra was seen as relatively cleaner, and enjoyed greater popularity than the Congress. Some analysts view this […]

Latest table of aid to Colombia

The Senate Appropriations Committee made public its draft of the 2021 foreign aid bill, and the Congressional Research Service obtained new numbers for Defense Department aid. So here's what U.S. appropriations to Latin America's largest aid recipient look like from 2016 through 2020—and, for 2021, the White House's request and what's in the House and Senate bills (Congress is still nowhere near finishing a 2021 budget):

Latest table of aid to Colombia - Colombia Peace

The Senate Appropriations Committee released a draft of its version of the 2021 aid bill this morning. And two weeks ago, a Congressional Research Service report revealed new data about Defense Department assistance. The 2021 aid bill hasn’t become law…Read more →

Two new weekly updates

Between Labor Day and Election Day, I produced a trial run of brief (less than 900-word) weekly summaries of major developments at the border, and about U.S.-bound migration in general. We shared them with WOLA's "Beyond the Wall" mailing list and evaluated the result. In the end these updates, which took me about an hour to produce each week, got a lot of "opens" and good feedback, and writing them has helped my own "situational awareness." So we've decided to make them permanent and more widely available. Here's the latest one.

Weekly border update: November 13, 2020 - Adam Isacson Adam Isacson

Between Labor Day and Election Day, I produced super-brief weekly border and migration updates on a trial basis. We sent them to WOLA’s “Beyond the Wall” mailing list, but didn’t advertise them widely because we wanted to evaluate how the trial run went. It went well: the “open rates” for the updates were quite high, […]

Because that experience was positive, I'm now piloting weekly brief Colombia updates between now and the end of the year, and sharing them at WOLA's Colombia Peace site. Here is the first one.

Colombia peace update: Week of November 8, 2020 - Colombia Peace

WOLA had a good experience this fall producing weekly updates, on a pilot basis, about U.S. border security and migration. Between now and the end of the year, we’re carrying out a similar pilot for Colombia, producing weekly sub-1,000-word updates…Read more →

Five links from the past week

• USA Today’s Alan Gomez and Daniel Gonzalez do a deep dive into what the Biden administration would have to do, procedurally, to undo the Trump administration’s hardline border and migration policies.
• An International Crisis Group report explains how eight months of life under COVID-19 have largely failed to alter organized crime patterns in Mexico and Central America. After a brief disruption, gangs and traffickers swiftly adapted.
• The second in what will be a five-part Washington Postseries about Mexico’s out-of-control organized crime situation looks at how criminal groups have become enmeshed in local government, focusing on a mayor in Morelos who continued to govern his town from a faraway prison cell.
• Colombia’s Verdad Abierta published a series of articles about the south-central department of Guaviare, which is under the heavy influence of FARC dissident groups: the security situation, the environmental damage especially deforestation, and the perilous situation of environmental defenders.
• At Univision, Jennifer Ávila and Danielle Mackey find that “Nucor Corporation, the chief steel producer in the United States, was a powerful hidden partner” behind a much-protested iron mining project in a national park in Honduras. “Nucor was an important donor to Donald Trump’s last two presidential campaigns.”

Latin America-related online events this week

It's a very heavy week for events—and I'm neither planning nor appearing in any of them. Here's what I've seen, I'm sure I've missed a lot:

Monday, November 16

• 1:30 at migrationpolicy.org: Mission Critical: The Evolution of U.S. Homeland Security in the 21st Century(RSVP required).
• 1:30 at Zoom: Legislative Effectiveness in Latin America (RSVP required).
• 3:00–5:00 at immigrationforum.org: Leading the Way: An American Approach to Immigration (RSVP required).

Tuesday, November 17

• 12:30–2:00 at refugeesinternational.org: Voices from the Border: Detention and the Need for Humane Alternatives (RSVP required).
• 2:30–4:00 at wilsoncenter.org: What Does the World Expect of President-elect Joe Biden? (RSVP required).
• 3:00–5:00 at immigrationforum.org: Leading the Way: An American Approach to Immigration (RSVP required).
• 5:30–7:30 at clacs.nyu.edu: Bolivia’s Electoral Victory: What challenges lie ahead for MAS? (RSVP required).

Wednesday, November 18

• 9:00–11:00 at YouTube and Facebook Live: InSight Crime celebrates 10 years of investigating organized crime in Latin America.
• 11:45 at Facebook Live: Impacto de las elecciones en los Estados Unidos de América en las políticas migratorias y de asilo en la región.
• 1:00–2:30 at thedialogue.org: El impacto de la política eléctrica estado-céntrica en México en el comercio, el clima y la economía (RSVP required).
• 2:00 at Zoom: Yes, And: Supporting the Long Term Well Being of Migrants Impacted by COVID-19 (RSVP required).
• 3:00–5:00 at immigrationforum.org: Leading the Way: An American Approach to Immigration (RSVP required).
• 5:00–7:00 at gwu.edu: Toward a New U.S.-Colombia Relationship (RSVP required).
• 6:00 at wola.org: The Three Rs: Realize, Recognize, & Reconciliation—A Panel about Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women, Children, and Two Spirits (RSVP required).

Thursday, November 19

• 10:00–11:30 at wola.org: Evaluating U.S. Sanctions Policy Towards Venezuela (RSVP required).
• 11:00–12:00 at thedialogue.org: A Conversation with Iván Duque Marquéz (RSVP required).
• 1:00–2:00 at wola.org: Race and Policing in the Time of COVID in Latin America (RSVP required).
• 3:00–5:00 at immigrationforum.org: Leading the Way: An American Approach to Immigration (RSVP required).
• 5:30–7:30 at urosario.edu.co: Peacebuilding amid Persistence of Violence (RSVP required).
• 6:00 at wola.org: The Three Rs: Realize, Recognize, & Reconciliation—A Panel about Environmental Justice and Colonization (RSVP required).

Friday, November 20

• 9:00 at americasquarterly.org: How to Involve More Women in Politics (RSVP required).
• 10:00 at humanrightscommission.house.gov: The Rights of Indigenous Peoples in the Americas.
• 11:00–12:30 at urosario.edu.co: Peacebuilding amid Persistence of Violence (RSVP required).
• 2:00–3:30 at urosario.edu.co: Peacebuilding amid Persistence of Violence (RSVP required).
• 4:00–5:15 at gwu.edu: Pursuing a Just Hemisphere: The OAS and Human Rights in the Americas (RSVP required).

Saturday, November 21

• 11:00–12:30 at urosario.edu.co: Peacebuilding amid Persistence of Violence (RSVP required).
• 2:00–5:00 at urosario.edu.co: Peacebuilding amid Persistence of Violence (RSVP required).

On civil-military relations in Latin America during COVID-19

On the back of the pandemic, the militarisation of Latin America is gathering momentum, analysts warn - Equal Times

During the Covid-19 pandemic, armed forces in Latin America have been taking on essential tasks: manufacturing protective equipment, delivering food and treating civilians in hospitals. In at (...)

On the election

You may have noticed there was an election in the United States. Let the record show that I predicted 306 electoral votes on October 27th. I got North Carolina, Georgia, and Maine-2 wrong, but nailed the number.

If you want to see me talking in gringo Spanish about the U.S. election result (and who wouldn't), here are some videos from the past week and a half.

I also did a show with Colombia's La Silla Vacía, who don't appear to have posted the video but shared a written transcript.

Las dudas de los SúperAmigos sobre las elecciones gringas y sus respuestas | La Silla Vacía

Portal de información, análisis y opinión sobre el poder en Colombia

On a panel at Colombia's Universidad de los Andes:

In a few episodes of Colombia's Semana en Vivo which, sadly, has since been canceled amid a mass exodus of decent journalists from Semana:

Also, a couple of quick reflections on the situation in the United States.

On the weakness of Trump's position:

No institutions, no coup - Adam Isacson Adam Isacson

A lot of people in my inboxes are worried that Donald Trump and his allies in the Republican Party may yet succeed in bringing about what Mike Pompeo called “a smooth transition to a second Trump administration.” There is now a boomlet of news analyses explaining how unlikely that is—although, frustratingly, it can’t be absolutely, […]

On the possibility of the election outcome being reversed by state legislatures' selection of electors—a scenario that seems increasingly unlikely:

They wouldn't dare, unless they do - Adam Isacson Adam Isacson

Donald Trump’s insistence that he lost the election due to fraud is clearly false, given the rigor of the count and the five-digit margins in key states. His campaign’s challenges in court are likely to fail, and many are being thrown out. But there is one more possible step where standards of evidence might be […]

A message I wrote mainly to reassure colleagues in Latin America on November 6, before major media called the race for Biden:

So what's next? - Adam Isacson Adam Isacson

Español abajo I’m a Latin Americanist. My only qualifications to analyze U.S. politics are that I’ve spent my life in the United States, I’ve voted here since 1988, and I work as a policy advocate in Washington. When I travel, I go to Latin America. If I travel within the United States, I go to […]

"If governments expect the military to take on so many traditionally civilian roles, the military will expect to have a greater say in the country’s administration," I told Equal Times. "And that means less democracy."

A few tweets that made me laugh this week