Weekly adamisacson.com - Issue #7
Last week is finally over. I'm fine, I guess. I hope you are too. Washington was at its ugliest the past several days, except for the good people protesting outside the Senate. Meanwhile, I'm just here trying not to refresh 538's "latest polls" page like a rat seeking a food pellet.
This summed up my mood by lunchtime Friday:
Disarmament, Demobilization, and LinkedIn
“I remember once, in September 2016, he started to laugh because he tried to sign up on the LinkedIn social network and when he came to the page where you have to put where you worked before, he said: ‘What the [expletive] do I put? Guerrilla leader?’ He tried to skip that part but the […]
Anyway, if you're in Washington on the 16th, mark your calendar and join us to take a close look at Colombia right now.
The big event we're putting on is called "Staying on Course: Security, Coca, Justice, and Accord Implementation in Colombia," and it's open to the public. Video will be posted sometime after. Go here and RSVP.
Tuesday, October 16, 2018, 8:30 a.m.-4:00 p.m.
Root Room, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC
Two years after Colombia signed a historic peace accord with the FARC, Latin America’s largest guerrilla group, much is uncertain. Amid uneven implementation of the accord, armed and criminal groups—some made up of demobilized guerrillas—are filling territorial vacuums and encroaching on ethnic-minority communities. Murders of independent social leaders have reached epidemic proportions. A new president who had led opposition to the accord seeks to make adjustments. Complex transitional-justice cases are just getting started. Coca cultivation has reached new records. Negotiations with the ELN guerrilla group are stalled. Meanwhile, most messages from the U.S. government are about coca and the crisis in neighboring Venezuela—not consolidation of peace.
WOLA is pleased to bring to Washington a remarkable group of leaders, practitioners, and experts from Colombia. They will dive deeply into these and other current challenges in an all-day event, open to the public.
Light lunch, coffee, and simultaneous translation will be provided. Video will be available at WOLA’s website (wola.org) after the event.
Big Colombia conference is 9 days away: Tuesday the 16th
I’m really looking forward to having this group here. RSVP here, at WOLA’s website. Staying on Course: Security, Coca, Justice, and Accord Implementation in Colombia Tuesday, October 16, 2018, 8:30 a.m.-4:00 p.m. Root Room, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC Two years after Colombia signed a historic peace accord with the […]
I see five Latin America-related events going on elsewhere in Washington this week.
Wednesday, October 10
- 9:00–11:00 at the Inter-American Dialogue: Mexico’s Security Crisis: What Lies Ahead for AMLO? (RSVP required).
- 6:00–8:00 at the Wilson Center: AMLO and the Outlook for North American Free Trade (RSVP required).
Friday, October 12
- 10:00–12:00 at the Wilson Center: Will Brazil Go Right or Left? (RSVP required).
- 10:30–12:00 at CSIS: Venezuela as a Narco State (RSVP required).
- 11:30–1:00 at the Wilson Center: Looking Out: New Survey Reveals Views in Argentina of Trade, Great Power Relations (RSVP required).
Latin America-related events in Washington this week
Wednesday, October 10 9:00–11:00 at the Inter-American Dialogue: Mexico’s Security Crisis: What Lies Ahead for AMLO? (RSVP required). 6:00–8:00 at the Wilson Center: AMLO and the Outlook for North American Free Trade (RSVP required). Friday, October 12 10:00–12:00 at the Wilson Center: Will Brazil Go Right or Left? (RSVP required). 10:30–12:00 at CSIS: Venezuela as […]
I wrote three analyses of Colombia this week.
And I'm also very far along on a huge (35-plus-pages) report based on our fieldwork along Colombia's Pacific coast in early September.
First, a column at the Colombian website Razón Pública about what happened when Presidents Duque and Trump met outside the UN General Assembly. Short version: coca, Venezuela, and not much peace accord. The English is on my site, Razón Pública la presenta en español.
Second, a 250-word response to a question from the Inter-American Dialogue about what is to become of the peace accord with the FARC. I fear that the accord “may erode to its barest essence” under the Duque government.
Third, another big weekly update about what happened in Colombia's peace process during the week of September 23-29. Topics covered include:
- Duque and Trump meet in New York
- "Missing" FARC leaders resurface, voicing security concerns
- Forced displacement is up sharply
- Bill introduced to create a separate transitional-justice chamber for the military
- Venezuela is no longer a "guarantor nation" for the stalled ELN peace talks
New piece at Razón Pública
Many thanks to Hernando Gómez Buendía, Daniela Garzón, and the staff at Colombia’s Razón Pública for inviting me to submit a column about last week’s meeting between Trump and Colombian President Iván Duque. If you prefer Spanish, el artículo, titulado “La reunión de Duque con Trump: entretenida pero improductiva,” se puede leer aquí. Below is the version I wrote in […]
Colombia’s peace accord “may erode to its barest essence”
Here’s my 250-word response to a question in today’s edition of the Inter-American Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor publication, about the state of peace accord implementation in Colombia. Q: The U.N. Security Council on Sept. 13 extended the mandate of its mission overseeing the implementation of Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC rebels. The council also called on […]
The past week in Colombia’s peace process
(Week of September 23-29) Presidents Duque and Trump Meet in New York Seven weeks into his presidency, Colombian President Iván Duque had his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, outside the UN General Assembly meetings in New York. “It was a great meeting,” Duque later told the Washington Post’s Lally Weymouth. “We are going […]
Here are five of the best articles by others that I read last week.
Five links from the past week
Western Hemisphere Regional Caitlin Dickerson, “Migrant Children Moved Under Cover of Darkness to a Texas Tent City” (The New York Times, October 1, 2018). Originally opened in June for 30 days with a capacity of 400, it expanded in September to be able to house 3,800, and is now expected to remain open at least […]
Western Hemisphere Regional
- Caitlin Dickerson, “Migrant Children Moved Under Cover of Darkness to a Texas Tent City” (The New York Times, October 1, 2018).
Originally opened in June for 30 days with a capacity of 400, it expanded in September to be able to house 3,800, and is now expected to remain open at least through the end of the year
Colombia
- “Las Garantias de Seguridad: Una Mirada Desde Lo Local” (Fundacion Ideas por la Paz (Colombia), October 4, 2018).
En las zonas analizadas, los frágiles equilibrios y acuerdos entre las facciones ilegales se han roto y se han renovado procesos de disputa
Cuba
- Mimi Whitefield, “Why No One Can Agree on What Really Happened to the U.S. Diplomats in Havana” (The Miami Herald, October 2, 2018).
“This episode has gotten way out of hand with wild speculation and competing theories from specialists”
El Salvador
- Cora Currier, Danielle Mackey, “El Salvador Is Trying to Stop Gang Violence. But the Trump Administration Keeps Pushing Failed “Iron Fist” Policing.” (The Intercept, October 2, 2018).
By pushing policies like these, the U.S. is fueling violence on one hand, while trying to solve it with the other through tertiary prevention
Mexico
- Elisabeth Malkin, “50 Years After a Student Massacre, Mexico Reflects on Democracy” (The New York Times, October 2, 2018).
What was clear after the violence of that night was that Mexico’s government was willing to go to extreme lengths to maintain control
6 "longreads" about Latin America from the month of September.
6 Latin America longreads from September
Western Hemisphere Regional David Luhnow, “Latin America Is the Murder Capital of the World” (The Wall Street Journal, September 24, 2018). The violence in Acapulco has created a dystopia where social norms have broken down El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras Abby Cordova, Diana M. Orces, Jonathan T. Hiskey, Mary Fran Malone, “Leaving the Devil You Know: […]
Western Hemisphere Regional
- David Luhnow, “Latin America Is the Murder Capital of the World” (The Wall Street Journal, September 24, 2018).
The violence in Acapulco has created a dystopia where social norms have broken down
El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras
- Abby Cordova, Diana M. Orces, Jonathan T. Hiskey, Mary Fran Malone, “Leaving the Devil You Know: Crime Victimization, Us Deterrence Policy, and the Emigration Decision in Central America” (Latin American Research Review, September 28, 2018).
Though a vast majority of these respondents were aware of the stricter US immigration policy regime, this awareness had no effect on their consideration of emigration as a viable strategy
Guatemala
- Roberto Valencia, “Ver, Oir y Linchar en Chichicastenango” (El Faro (El Salvador), September 24, 2018).
Hoy, Chichi (170 000 habitantes) es una de las ciudades menos homicidas en la región más homicida del mundo –el Triángulo Norte de Centroamérica–, con una tasa de asesinatos inferior a la de Chile, Bélgica o Canadá. ¿Quiere saber por qué?
Mexico
- Michael J. Mooney, “How a Cartel-Linked Murder Rocked a Wealthy Dallas Suburb” (Texas Monthly, September 28, 2018).
How prosecutors tied a brazen murder in an upscale Dallas suburb to one of Mexico’s most violent criminal organizations
- Elias Camhaji, “Matar y Morir en Ciudad de Mexico” (El Pais (Spain), September 24, 2018).
La inseguridad, la erosión del tejido social y la impunidad han creado una espiral de violencia que ha hundido a la capital mexicana en el momento más sangriento de su historia
- Ioan Grillo, “He Dedicated His Career to Exposing the Cartels. Then He Was Gunned Down in the Street.” (Esquire, September 20, 2018).
Corruption at the state level has been partly responsible for a lack of progress in prosecuting such deaths
Coverage from the last month about arms transfers and arms trafficking in the region:
Lunch break
In the middle of writing a huge report at home. Right now I’m filling in “conclusions” on page 87 of the 91-page “findings-conclusions-recommendations” matrix I created to hold all the information we gathered in Colombia. In plainer English, that means I’m really far along. I did go to the kitchen for a lunch break a […]
Arms transfers in Latin America: Links from the past month
Western Hemisphere Regional Aaron Mehta, “State Official Predicts Us Weapon Sales Increase in 2019” (DefenseNews, September 12, 2018). The U.S. has signed $46.9 billion in weapons sales to foreign partners and allies, smashing past the $41.9 billion figure from all of fiscal 2017 Argentina “Former Argentine President Acquitted of Arms Smuggling” (Associated Press, The New […]
Everything that my colleagues at WOLA and I wrote during September:
The “WOLA firehose” for September 2018
Here’s everything my colleagues and I published last month. “Court Finds Guatemalan Army Committed Genocide, but Acquits Military Intelligence Chief,” by Jo-Marie Burt and Paulo Estrada, September 28, 2018 “Video: Responding to Venezuela’s Exodus,” by Geoff Ramsey and Gimena Sánchez-Garzoli, September 26, 2018 “4 Years on, No Accountability for 43 Forcibly Disappeared Students from Ayotzinapa,” […]
Some of the music I was listening to this week:
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“One That Suits Me” by Hop Along (2018).
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Sure” by Hatchie (2018).
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Spirit FM” by Bad Moves (2018).
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Punching Up” by Flasher (2018).
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Scorpio Rising” by Soccer Mommy (2018).
Links to all the Latin America security writing and news coverage I found most of interest this week:
Some articles I found interesting this morning
(Even more here) October 5, 2018 Western Hemisphere Regional Angela Kocherga, “Record Surge of Families Crossing Border” (The Albuquerque Journal, October 5, 2018). “If I had space for 1,000 per week, (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) would release 1,000. We’re over capacity,” said Ruben Garcia, director of Annunciation House Brazil David Noriega, “Brazilian Politics Is […]
Some articles I found interesting this morning
(Even more here) October 4, 2018 Argentina “Former Argentine President Acquitted of Arms Smuggling” (Associated Press, The New York Times, October 4, 2018). “The same judicial branch that processed the case for 22 years without a firm sentence, now declares Menem innocent because too much time has passed” Brazil Brian Winter, “Meet the New Brazil. […]
Some articles I found interesting this morning
(Even more here) October 3, 2018 Western Hemisphere Regional Noah Lanard, “A New Government Report Shows Just How Badly Trump Botched His Family Separation Agenda” (Mother Jones, October 3, 2018). DHS claimed on June 23 that it had “a central database” that HHS and DHS could use to keep track of separated family members. The […]
Some articles I found interesting this morning
(Even more here) October 2, 2018 Bolivia, Chile “Un Court Rules Against Bolivia in Sea Spat” (BBC (UK), October 2, 2018). As the judge dismissed Bolivia’s arguments one by one, Mr Morales’s face turned increasingly sombre Brazil Beatrice Christofaro, Marcelo Silva de Sousa, Peter Prengaman, “In Brazil Congress, Bolsonaro’s Record Thin; Army Was Focus” (Associated […]
Some articles I found interesting this morning
(Even more here) October 1, 2018 Western Hemisphere Regional “California Extends Trump’s Border Mission by 6 Months” (Associated Press, Army Times, October 1, 2018). Brown, a Democrat, initially held out but his eventual commitment of 400 troops brought the total to about 2,400 for all four border states, above the low end of Trump’s target […]
And that's it. The coming week is a four-day week for most Washington office drones. I don't even know what Monday is called now (Columbus Day? Indigenous Peoples' Day?), but WOLA's building will be closed and I'll be working at home. Got a big Colombia report to finish.